Guimaraes B vs Varzim: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Gémeos Castro, Guimarães
The Footlab model makes Guimaraes B the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Varzim. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes B vs Varzim?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Guimaraes B (1,948) and Varzim (1,948).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes B have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Varzim have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leça(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Guimaraes B win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Varzim win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Varzim 2-2 Guimaraes B | Liga 3 |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Guimaraes B 3-0 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Guimaraes B 1-2 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Varzim 1-1 Guimaraes B | Liga 3 |
| Feb 19, 2023 | Guimaraes B 2-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Nov 4, 2022 | Varzim 2-0 Guimaraes B | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Varzim vs Guimaraes B on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes B score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Varzim score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes B | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Varzim | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes B sit 5th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Varzim sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varzim | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Guimaraes B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes B vs Varzim?
- The Footlab model makes Guimaraes B the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Varzim.
- Where and when is Guimaraes B vs Varzim played?
- Guimaraes B vs Varzim is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Gémeos Castro, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.