Leça vs Pacos Ferreira: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube, Leça da Palmeira
The Footlab model makes Leça the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Pacos Ferreira. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leça vs Pacos Ferreira?
Leça starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,959 vs 1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leça have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Pacos Ferreira have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guimaraes B(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AD Marco 09(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AVS(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Leça score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pacos Ferreira score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leça | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Pacos Ferreira | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leça sit 7th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Pacos Ferreira sit 10th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leça | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leça vs Pacos Ferreira?
- The Footlab model makes Leça the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Pacos Ferreira.
- Where and when is Leça vs Pacos Ferreira played?
- Leça vs Pacos Ferreira is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.