Leça vs Pacos Ferreira: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube, Leça da Palmeira
The Footlab AI model makes Leça the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Pacos Ferreira. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leça wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,664 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leça vs Pacos Ferreira?
Leça starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (2,032 vs 1,858).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leça vs Pacos Ferreira
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leça
4-3-3- 10Nicolas
- 11B. Mesquita
- 9M. Fortes
- 20Rodrigo Ferreira
- 33Diogo Pereira
- 21Carlos Avelino
- 23D. Ribeiro
- 41Cássio Scheid
- 22A. Coutinho
- 4Fábio Baldé
- 1M. Paiva
Pacos Ferreira
4-2-3-1- 99Platiny
- 8Nuno Cunha
- 19Tomás Castro
- 6Tomás Podstawski
- 80Caio Rafael
- 10João Neto
- 33Rafael Vieira
- 15Leandro Dias
- 2Tiago Mesquita
- 29Tiago Cerveira
- 1Rafa
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 02:57 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leça have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Pacos Ferreira have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Penafiel(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes B(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Leça score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pacos Ferreira score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leça | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Pacos Ferreira | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leça sit 2nd in Liga 3 (10 points from 6 matches) and Pacos Ferreira sit 8th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Leça vs Pacos Ferreira?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leça vs Pacos Ferreira?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leça the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Pacos Ferreira.
- Where and when is Leça vs Pacos Ferreira played?
- Leça vs Pacos Ferreira is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.