Mafra vs Caldas: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
The Footlab AI model makes Mafra the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Caldas. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mafra vs Caldas?
Mafra starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (2,009 vs 1,909).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mafra vs Caldas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mafra
4-3-3- 7R. Matos
- 9Mamor Niang
- 11Leandro Alves
- 46Braima Samú
- 37A. Ba
- 6Y. Maïga
- 5Gonçalo Cardoso
- 2M. Camara
- 3Kauê Alves
- 13Celso Raposo
- 33Pedro Silva
Caldas
4-3-3- 17Goncas
- 9G. Chaves
- 77G. Pio
- 80M. Palmerio
- 5R. Correia
- 22T. Serrazina
- 3Nando
- 20G. Lourenco
- 56Caio Amaral
- 25L. Farinha
- 12D. Almeida
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mafra have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Caldas have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tirsense(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Covilha(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Sintrense(home) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 2-4 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Mafra wins, 1 draw, 0 Caldas wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Mafra 4-2 Caldas | Liga 3 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Caldas 1-1 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Caldas 0-2 Mafra | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Mafra score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Caldas score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | 1.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Caldas | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mafra sit 4th in Liga 3 (8 points from 6 matches) and Caldas sit 7th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Mafra vs Caldas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mafra vs Caldas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mafra the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Caldas.
- Where and when is Mafra vs Caldas played?
- Mafra vs Caldas is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Mafra, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.