Mafra vs Caldas: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Caldas. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mafra vs Caldas?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Mafra (1,919) and Caldas (1,830).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mafra have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Caldas have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FC Fredericia(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 2-4 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Academica(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | 1º Dezembro(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Mafra win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Caldas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Mafra 4-2 Caldas | Liga 3 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Caldas 1-1 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Caldas 0-2 Mafra | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Mafra score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Caldas score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Caldas | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mafra sit 7th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Caldas sit 8th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mafra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Caldas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mafra vs Caldas?
- The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Caldas.
- Where and when is Mafra vs Caldas played?
- Mafra vs Caldas is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Mafra, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.