Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitano Évora 1911: prediction and stats
Liga 3Matchday 17Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, Cernache do Bonjardim
The Footlab AI model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Vitória de Sernache. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lusitano Évora 1911 wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,219 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitano Évora 1911?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Vitória de Sernache (1,917) and Lusitano Évora 1911 (1,933).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitano Évora 1911
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vitória de Sernache
4-3-3- 11J. Muriel
- 7A. Dias
- 13Lucas Daniel
- 19E. Moura
- 21M. Almeida
- 6R. Embalo
- 4Matheus Matias
- 22Filipe Garcia
- 3Diego Tavares
- 15K. Ibouka
- 1Joao Lucas
Lusitano Évora 1911
4-3-3- 23Diogo Sequeira
- 11S. A. Andrade Male
- 10Martim Águas
- 13Burá
- 5I. Diagne
- 8Tiago Baptista
- 4Cassiano
- 21Marcos Soares
- 2Marco Baixinho
- 53Eurichano Carvalho
- 22D. Martins
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 11:02 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitória de Sernache have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Lusitano Évora 1911 have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Brito(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Oliveirense(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SC Covilha(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Vitória de Sernache win, 0 draws, 0 Lusitano Évora 1911 wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911 0-1 Vitória de Sernache | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Vitória de Sernache on Nov 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vitória de Sernache score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lusitano Évora 1911 score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória de Sernache | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitória de Sernache sit 8th in Liga 3 (7 points from 9 matches) and Lusitano Évora 1911 sit 10th (7 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Vitória de Sernache | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 7 |
| 10 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
A question about Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitano Évora 1911?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitano Évora 1911?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Vitória de Sernache.
- Where and when is Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitano Évora 1911 played?
- Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitano Évora 1911 is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.