Wanderers vs Progreso: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 12Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
The Footlab AI model makes Wanderers the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Progreso. The most likely score is 1-1. If Wanderers wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,783 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wanderers vs Progreso?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Wanderers (1,692) and Progreso (1,673).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Wanderers vs Progreso
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Wanderers
4-3-3- 24J. Zeballos
- 30F. Labandeira
- 10L. Cosentino
- 5N. Queiroz
- 16J. Alberti
- 21S. Benitez
- 2N. Cabral
- 31N. Furtado
- 13F. Formiliano
- 15D. Mencia
- 33A. Buffa
Progreso
4-2-3-1- 7A. Ocampo
- 16G. Trasante
- 5A. Pinheiro
- 25R. Cristóbal
- 18G. Silva
- 4L. Couture
- 40A. Cougo
- 24E. Álvarez
- 6M. Saravia
- 21S. Bruschi
- 1R. Bacchia
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 12:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wanderers have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Progreso have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Boston River(home) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Cerrito(away) | 2-2 | Copa Uruguay |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cerro(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Albion FC(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Juventud(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Penarol(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Boston River(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wanderers wins, 2 draws, 2 Progreso wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Progreso 2-1 Wanderers | Primera División |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Progreso 2-0 Wanderers | Primera División - Clausura |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Wanderers 1-1 Progreso | Primera División |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Progreso 0-0 Wanderers | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Wanderers 4-2 Progreso | Primera División |
| May 4, 2024 | Wanderers 2-0 Progreso | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Progreso vs Wanderers on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wanderers score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Progreso score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wanderers | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Progreso | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wanderers sit 11th in Primera División (15 points from 11 matches) and Progreso sit 8th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Progreso | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 15 |
A question about Wanderers vs Progreso?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wanderers vs Progreso?
- The Footlab AI model makes Wanderers the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Progreso.
- Where and when is Wanderers vs Progreso played?
- Wanderers vs Progreso is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.