Derby vs Portsmouth: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 44Kick-off on April 20, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes Derby the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Portsmouth. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derby wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,630 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Portsmouth?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Derby (1,773) and Portsmouth (1,870).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs Portsmouth
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 19H. Meister
- 4D. Ozoh
- 20A. Mowatt
- 24R. Nyambe
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 22M. Johnston
- 1J. Widell Zetterström
Portsmouth
4-2-3-1- 29M. Milovanović
- 10A. Segecic
- 37I. Mohamed
- 11A. Kamara
- 7M. Pack
- 25R. Kavuma McQueen
- 55M. Dia
- 5R. Poole
- 16J. Meghoma
- 24T. Devlin
- 1N. Schmid
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 07:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 1 win, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Portsmouth have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Derby wins, 3 draws, 0 Portsmouth wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | Portsmouth 0-2 Derby | Championship |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Portsmouth 0-1 Derby | Championship |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Derby 1-1 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Portsmouth 2-2 Derby | Championship |
| Dec 13, 2024 | Derby 4-0 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Portsmouth 2-2 Derby | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 0.8 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Portsmouth score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 0.8 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Portsmouth | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 23rd in Championship (7 points from 14 matches) and Portsmouth sit 10th (22 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 22 |
| 23 | Derby | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 7 |
A question about Derby vs Portsmouth?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Portsmouth?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derby the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Portsmouth.
- Where and when is Derby vs Portsmouth played?
- Derby vs Portsmouth is played on April 20, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.