Middlesbrough vs Burnley: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 44Kick-off on April 20, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Burnley. The most likely score is 1-1. If Middlesbrough wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,384 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Burnley?
On Elo ratings, Middlesbrough has 2,009 points and Burnley 1,915.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Middlesbrough vs Burnley
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Middlesbrough
3-4-2-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 2C. Brittain
- 10A. Morris
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 30Neto Borges
- 6S. Berhalter
- 8R. McGree
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 12L. Ayling
- 1R. Vítek
Burnley
4-2-3-1- 11Z. Amdouni
- 29J. Laurent
- 3Max Alleyne
- 7J. Bruun Larsen
- 19L. Ramazani
- 5R. Hatate
- 44Igor
- 2K. Walker
- 15A. Ahmedhodžić
- 23Lucas Pires
- 37G. Coudert
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Middlesbrough have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Burnley have 1, 8 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford(away) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Middlesbrough wins, 4 draws, 2 Burnley wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Middlesbrough 0-0 Burnley | Championship |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Apr 7, 2023 | Middlesbrough 1-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Burnley 3-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Apr 8, 2017 | Middlesbrough 0-0 Burnley | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Burnley vs Middlesbrough on Sep 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Middlesbrough score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Burnley score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Burnley | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Middlesbrough sit 2nd in Championship (21 points from 10 matches) and Burnley sit 21st (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 8 |
A question about Middlesbrough vs Burnley?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Middlesbrough vs Burnley?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Middlesbrough vs Burnley played?
- Middlesbrough vs Burnley is played on April 20, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Riverside Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.