Norwich vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 44Kick-off on April 20, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Carrow Road, Norwich, Norfolk
The Footlab model makes Norwich the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Norwich vs Stoke City?
Norwich starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,909 vs 1,793).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Norwich have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Stoke City have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Cambridge United(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Norwich win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Stoke City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Norwich 0-2 Stoke City | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Stoke City 1-1 Norwich | Championship |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Norwich 4-2 Stoke City | Championship |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Stoke City 1-1 Norwich | Championship |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Stoke City 0-3 Norwich | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Norwich 1-0 Stoke City | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Norwich score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Stoke City | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Norwich sit 23rd in Championship (0 points from 2 matches) and Stoke City sit 21st (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Norwich vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab model makes Norwich the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Norwich vs Stoke City played?
- Norwich vs Stoke City is played on April 20, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Carrow Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.