Worcester City vs Chorley: prediction and stats
FA Cup4th Round QualifyingKick-off on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Claines Lane, Worcester, Worcestershire
The Footlab AI model makes Worcester City the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Chorley. The most likely score is 1-1. If Worcester City wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,695 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Worcester City vs Chorley?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Worcester City (1,805) and Chorley (1,859).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Worcester City vs Chorley
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Worcester City
Not enough data to predict the Worcester City lineup.
Chorley
Not enough data to predict the Chorley lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 03:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Worcester City have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Chorley have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chorley(away) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stourbridge(home) | 1-3 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rushall Olympic(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Kettering Town(away) | 3-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Racing Club Warwick(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Worcester City(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Barton Town Old Boys(away) | 4-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rylands(away) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Worcester City wins, 1 draw, 0 Chorley wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chorley 1-1 Worcester City | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Chorley vs Worcester City on Oct 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Worcester City score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Chorley score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worcester City | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Chorley | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Worcester City vs Chorley?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Worcester City vs Chorley?
- The Footlab AI model makes Worcester City the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Chorley.
- Where and when is Worcester City vs Chorley played?
- Worcester City vs Chorley is played on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Claines Lane, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.