York vs Fleetwood Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Fleetwood Town. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Fleetwood Town?
York starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (1,983 vs 1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Fleetwood Town have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 York win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Fleetwood Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2014 | Fleetwood Town 0-0 York | League Two |
| May 12, 2014 | York 0-1 Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| Feb 1, 2014 | Fleetwood Town 1-2 York | League Two |
| Oct 26, 2013 | York 0-2 Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| Dec 29, 2012 | Fleetwood Town 0-0 York | League Two |
| Oct 2, 2012 | York 0-2 Fleetwood Town | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Fleetwood Town vs York on May 16, 2014
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Fleetwood Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Fleetwood Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York sit 6th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Fleetwood Town sit 9th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Fleetwood Town?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Fleetwood Town.
- Where and when is York vs Fleetwood Town played?
- York vs Fleetwood Town is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.