Zimbabwe vs Sierra Leone: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Francistown Stadium, Francistown
The Footlab model makes Zimbabwe the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Sierra Leone. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zimbabwe vs Sierra Leone?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Zimbabwe (1,457) and Sierra Leone (1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zimbabwe have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Sierra Leone have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | India(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| May 26, 2026 | Nigeria(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Zambia U23(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Botswana(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Dec 29, 2025 | South Africa(home) | 2-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Liberia(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Liberia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Djibouti(away) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Burkina Faso(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Zimbabwe score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sierra Leone score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zimbabwe | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Sierra Leone | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zimbabwe sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (9 points from 6 matches) and Sierra Leone sit 3rd (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Zimbabwe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zimbabwe vs Sierra Leone?
- The Footlab model makes Zimbabwe the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Sierra Leone.
- Where and when is Zimbabwe vs Sierra Leone played?
- Zimbabwe vs Sierra Leone is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Francistown Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.