Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 6Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Siaka Stevens National Stadium, Freetown
The Footlab AI model makes Sierra Leone the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Equatorial Guinea. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sierra Leone wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Sierra Leone (1,430) and Equatorial Guinea (1,499).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sierra Leone
4-2-3-1- 15A. Conteh
- 7I. Kanu
- 17M. Kamara
- 8Alhassan Koroma
- 14T. Fornah
- 4A. Dumbuya
- 5Alpha Turay
- 21Abdulay Bah
- 2O. Kakay
- 13G. Abdul
- 1M. Jalloh
Equatorial Guinea
4-4-2- 9Dorian Hanza
- 10Loren Zúñiga
- 14Álex Balboa
- 22Pablo Ganet
- 20Santiago Eneme
- 4Féderico Bikoro
- 16Saúl Coco
- 21Esteban Obiang
- 12Charles Ondo
- 24Rony Mbomio
- 1Jesús Owono
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sierra Leone have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Equatorial Guinea have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Zimbabwe(home) | 2-3 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Liberia(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Liberia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Sierra Leone(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Congo DR(away) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Comoros(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Madagascar(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Sierra Leone wins, 0 draws, 2 Equatorial Guinea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jan 20, 2022 | Sierra Leone 0-1 Equatorial Guinea | Africa Cup of Nations |
Last archived meeting: Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone on Sep 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sierra Leone score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Equatorial Guinea score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Leone | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sierra Leone sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (0 points from 2 matches) and Equatorial Guinea sit 3rd (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Equatorial Guinea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Sierra Leone | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
A question about Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sierra Leone the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Equatorial Guinea.
- Where and when is Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea played?
- Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Siaka Stevens National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.