Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 6Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Siaka Stevens National Stadium, Freetown
The Footlab model makes Sierra Leone the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Equatorial Guinea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Sierra Leone (1,448) and Equatorial Guinea (1,498).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sierra Leone have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Equatorial Guinea have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Liberia(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Liberia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Djibouti(away) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Burkina Faso(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Comoros(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Madagascar(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Algeria(home) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Sudan(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Sierra Leone win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Equatorial Guinea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2022 | Sierra Leone 0-1 Equatorial Guinea | Africa Cup of Nations |
Last archived meeting: Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea on Jan 20, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Sierra Leone score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Equatorial Guinea score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Leone | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sierra Leone sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (5 points from 6 matches) and Equatorial Guinea sit 2nd (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea?
- The Footlab model makes Sierra Leone the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Equatorial Guinea.
- Where and when is Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea played?
- Sierra Leone vs Equatorial Guinea is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Siaka Stevens National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.