AC Milan vs Atalanta: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Atalanta. The most likely score is 1-1. If AC Milan wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Milan vs Atalanta?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate AC Milan (2,145) and Atalanta (2,113).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AC Milan vs Atalanta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AC Milan
3-4-2-1- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 21S. Chukwueze
- 14L. Modrić
- 2P. Estupiñán
- 12A. Rabiot
- 80Y. Musah
- 33D. Bartesaghi
- 31S. Pavlović
- 5K. De Winter
- 34Mario Gila
- 16M. Maignan
Known absences
C. PulišićOut · Calf injury
Atalanta
4-3-3- 17C. De Ketelaere
- 11J. Rowe
- 9G. Scamacca
- 13Éderson
- 10L. Samardžić
- 19F. Kessié
- 42G. Scalvini
- 16R. Bellanova
- 3O. Kossounou
- 23S. Kolašinac
- 29M. Carnesecchi
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Milan have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Atalanta have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 AC Milan wins, 2 draws, 4 Atalanta wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | AC Milan 2-3 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Atalanta 1-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Apr 20, 2025 | AC Milan 0-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Atalanta 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AC Milan 1-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AC Milan 1-2 Atalanta | Coppa Italia |
How many goals should we expect?
AC Milan score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atalanta score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Atalanta | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AC Milan sit 5th in Serie A (11 points from 5 matches) and Atalanta sit 11th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
A question about AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Atalanta?
- The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Atalanta.
- Where and when is AC Milan vs Atalanta played?
- AC Milan vs Atalanta is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.