AS Roma vs Genoa: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico, Roma
The Footlab AI model makes AS Roma the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Genoa. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AS Roma vs Genoa?
AS Roma starts as the favourite with a 262-point Elo edge (2,206 vs 1,944).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AS Roma vs Genoa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AS Roma
3-4-2-1- 21P. Dybala
- 4B. Cristante
- 43Wesley
- 17M. Koné
- 20N. Molina
- 77E. Lulli
- 61N. Pisilli
- 23G. Mancini
- 22Hermoso
- 26L. Balerdi
- 99M. Svilar
Genoa
3-4-2-1- 8T. Baldanzi
- 32M. Frendrup
- 3K. Ehizibue
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 97D. Sow
- 20S. Sabelli
- 16C. Drameh
- 27A. Marcandalli
- 5L. Østigård
- 34S. Otoa
- 1J. Bijlow
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AS Roma have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Genoa have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 4-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-4 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AS Roma wins, 1 draw, 2 Genoa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Genoa 2-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Dec 29, 2025 | AS Roma 3-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Jan 17, 2025 | AS Roma 3-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Genoa 1-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| May 19, 2024 | AS Roma 1-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Genoa 4-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
AS Roma score 2.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Genoa score 1.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 2.4 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Genoa | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AS Roma sit 1st in Serie A (13 points from 5 matches) and Genoa sit 19th (1 point from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 13 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
A question about AS Roma vs Genoa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Genoa?
- The Footlab AI model makes AS Roma the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Genoa.
- Where and when is AS Roma vs Genoa played?
- AS Roma vs Genoa is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.