Monza vs Cagliari: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)U-Power Stadium, Monza
The Footlab AI model makes Monza the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Cagliari. The most likely score is 1-1. If Monza wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monza vs Cagliari?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Monza (1,964) and Cagliari (1,982).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Monza vs Cagliari
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Monza
3-4-2-1- 46Jay Robinson
- 7Ricardo Mangas
- 19S. Birindelli
- 14E. Akinsanmiro
- 90M. Folorunsho
- 8M. Ondoa
- 11O. Forson
- 3L. Lucchesi
- 60E. Kouadio
- 44A. Carboni
- 20D. Thiam
Cagliari
5-3-2- 31P. Mendy
- 70D. Maldini
- 6H. Winks
- 14A. Deiola
- 4A. Romano
- 15J. Rodríguez
- 8M. Adopo
- 33A. Obert
- 2Zé Pedro
- 26Y. Mina
- 1E. Caprile
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monza have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Cagliari have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sassuolo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Torino(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Hellas Verona(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Inter(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Monza win, 1 draw, 2 Cagliari wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | Cagliari 3-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Monza 1-2 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Monza 1-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Cagliari 1-1 Monza | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Monza score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cagliari score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 1.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Cagliari | 0.9 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monza sit 16th in Serie A (4 points from 5 matches) and Cagliari sit 4th (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 4 |
A question about Monza vs Cagliari?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monza vs Cagliari?
- The Footlab AI model makes Monza the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Cagliari.
- Where and when is Monza vs Cagliari played?
- Monza vs Cagliari is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at U-Power Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.