Académico do Fundão vs Guarda: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Académico do Fundão the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Guarda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Académico do Fundão vs Guarda?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Académico do Fundão (1,744) and Guarda (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 3 matches in all competitions, Académico do Fundão have 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Guarda have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2025 | Naval 1893(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Ferreira Zêzere(away) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alpendorada(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Régua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Leça(away) | 2-6 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Beira-Mar(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Académico do Fundão score 0.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 3; Guarda score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Académico do Fundão | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0/3 | 1/3 |
| Guarda | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 3 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Académico do Fundão vs Guarda?
- The Footlab model makes Académico do Fundão the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Guarda.
- Where and when is Académico do Fundão vs Guarda played?
- Académico do Fundão vs Guarda is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.