AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Serra da Esgalhada, Fornos de Algodres
The Footlab model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for AD Fornos Algodres. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate AD Fornos Algodres (1,745) and Os Marialvas (1,808).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 4 matches in all competitions, AD Fornos Algodres have 1 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Os Marialvas have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | AVS(home) | 0-7 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Charneca Caparica(home) | 3-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 3, 2017 | Lusitano FCV(away) | 1-4 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jul 22, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Lajense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
AD Fornos Algodres score 1.0 and concede 4.3 goals per match over their last 4; Os Marialvas score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Fornos Algodres | 1.0 | 4.3 | 0 | 2/4 | 4/4 |
| Os Marialvas | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 4 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas?
- The Footlab model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for AD Fornos Algodres.
- Where and when is AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas played?
- AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Serra da Esgalhada, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.