Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 14Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Princess Margaret Way, Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot
The Footlab model makes Afan Lido the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Afan Lido (1,496) and Caerphilly Athletic (1,506).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Afan Lido have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 2, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-5 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Caldicot Town(home) | 1-3 | Welsh Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Lido | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 5/8 | 6/8 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Afan Lido sit 8th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 12th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Afan Lido | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes Afan Lido the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on November 6, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.