Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LHP Stadium, Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed
The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 29% for Carmarthen Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aberystwyth Town wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 3,118 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Carmarthen Town (1,628) and Aberystwyth Town (1,668).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Carmarthen Town
Not enough data to predict the Carmarthen Town lineup.
Aberystwyth Town
Not enough data to predict the Aberystwyth Town lineup.
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 08:41 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmarthen Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 4-5 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Prestatyn Town(home) | 5-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Carmarthen Town wins, 2 draws, 2 Aberystwyth Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 1-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 1-0 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
| Oct 18, 2019 | Carmarthen Town 0-0 Aberystwyth Town | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2019 | Aberystwyth Town 3-2 Carmarthen Town | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2019 | Carmarthen Town 6-2 Aberystwyth Town | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2019 | Aberystwyth Town 3-2 Carmarthen Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town on Jan 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carmarthen Town score 2.3 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aberystwyth Town score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carmarthen Town sit 7th in FAW Championship (15 points from 10 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 3rd (19 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 21 | 15 |
A question about Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 29% for Carmarthen Town.
- Where and when is Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town is played on November 7, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LHP Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.