Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 14Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 54%, against 20% for a draw and 26% for Pontypridd Town. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town?
On Elo ratings, Caerau (Ely) has 1,739 points and Pontypridd Town 1,646.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Pontypridd Town
Not enough data to predict the Pontypridd Town lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Pontypridd Town have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Caerau (Ely) win, 2 draws, 3 Pontypridd Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pontypridd Town 0-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 2-0 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 0-1 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Pontypridd Town 1-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Pontypridd Town 4-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Oct 19, 2019 | Pontypridd Town 3-1 Caerau (Ely) | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Pontypridd Town score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Pontypridd Town | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (19 points from 10 matches) and Pontypridd Town sit 2nd (20 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 20 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 54%, against 20% for a draw and 26% for Pontypridd Town.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town is played on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 6, 2026llanelli AFCvsPontardawe Town
- Nov 6, 2026Afan LidovsCaerphilly Athletic
- Nov 6, 2026Baglan DragonsvsYnyshir Albions
- Nov 6, 2026Newport CityvsTreowen Stars
- Nov 7, 2026Carmarthen TownvsAberystwyth Town
- Nov 7, 2026Swansea UniversityvsCardiff Draconians
- Nov 7, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsLlantwit Major