Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 14Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Pontypridd Town. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Caerau (Ely) (1,656) and Pontypridd Town (1,600).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Pontypridd Town have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 3-4 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Barnstaple Town(home) | 4-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Caerau (Ely) win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Pontypridd Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pontypridd Town 0-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 2-0 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 0-1 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Pontypridd Town 1-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Pontypridd Town 4-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Oct 19, 2019 | Pontypridd Town 3-1 Caerau (Ely) | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pontypridd Town score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Pontypridd Town | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 11th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Pontypridd Town sit 2nd (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 11 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town?
- The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Pontypridd Town.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town is played on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 6, 2026llanelli AFCvsPontardawe Town
- Nov 6, 2026Afan LidovsCaerphilly Athletic
- Nov 6, 2026Baglan DragonsvsYnyshir Albions
- Nov 6, 2026Newport CityvsTreowen Stars
- Nov 7, 2026Carmarthen TownvsAberystwyth Town
- Nov 7, 2026Swansea UniversityvsCardiff Draconians
- Nov 7, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsLlantwit Major