Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 14Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot
The Footlab model makes Baglan Dragons the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ynyshir Albions. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Baglan Dragons (1,474) and Ynyshir Albions (1,450).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Ynyshir Albions have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Baglan Dragons win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Ynyshir Albions win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions 0-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 2-1 Ynyshir Albions | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ynyshir Albions vs Baglan Dragons on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ynyshir Albions score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Ynyshir Albions | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Ynyshir Albions sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?
- The Footlab model makes Baglan Dragons the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ynyshir Albions.
- Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions played?
- Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions is played on November 6, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.