Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 18Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Princess Margaret Way, Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 49%, against 21% for a draw and 30% for Afan Lido. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town?
Carmarthen Town starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,616 vs 1,498).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Afan Lido have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Carmarthen Town have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-5 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Afan Lido win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Carmarthen Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Carmarthen Town 3-1 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Afan Lido 0-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 1-0 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 2-2 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Afan Lido 3-3 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Afan Lido 4-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Lido | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Afan Lido sit 8th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Carmarthen Town sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 49%, against 21% for a draw and 30% for Afan Lido.
- Where and when is Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town played?
- Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 18, 2026llanelli AFCvsLlantwit Major
- Dec 18, 2026Pontypridd TownvsYnyshir Albions
- Dec 18, 2026Swansea UniversityvsCaerau (Ely)
- Dec 18, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsTreowen Stars
- Dec 18, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCardiff Draconians
- Dec 18, 2026Newport CityvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Dec 19, 2026Pontardawe TownvsAberystwyth Town