Where and when is Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic played?

Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Newport Stadium, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 18Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Newport Stadium, Casnewydd

Newport City

Caerphilly Athletic

The Footlab model makes Newport City the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic?

A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Newport City (1,558) and Caerphilly Athletic (1,507).

Newport City win48 %

Draw24 %

Caerphilly Athletic win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport City have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 2, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Newport City
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Baglan Dragons(home)	0-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Pontardawe Town(away)	4-0	FAW Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Carmarthen Town(home)	1-2	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	llanelli AFC(away)	4-1	FAW Championship
Jul 8, 2026	Newport County(home)	0-5	Friendlies Clubs

Caerphilly Athletic
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	2-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Treowen Stars(away)	0-3	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(home)	0-0	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Pontardawe Town(away)	0-3	FAW Championship
Sep 20, 2025	Caldicot Town(home)	1-3	Welsh Cup

How many goals should we expect?

Newport City score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Newport City	1.3	2.2	3	6/15	11/15
Caerphilly Athletic	1.3	2.0	1	5/8	6/8

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Newport City sit 7th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 12th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Newport City	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic?: The Footlab model makes Newport City the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Caerphilly Athletic.
Where and when is Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic played?: Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Newport Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.