Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 18Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Newport Stadium, Casnewydd
The Footlab AI model makes Newport City the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1. If Newport City wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,738 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Newport City (1,537) and Caerphilly Athletic (1,522).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newport City
Not enough data to predict the Newport City lineup.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport City have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 4-4 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 5-4 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chepstow Town(home) | 1-0 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Newport City wins, 0 draws, 1 Caerphilly Athletic win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic 3-2 Newport City | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerphilly Athletic vs Newport City on Oct 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport City score 1.6 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport City | 1.6 | 2.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport City sit 14th in FAW Championship (9 points from 9 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 10th (14 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Newport City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 9 |
A question about Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newport City the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Newport Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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