Trethomas Bluebirds vs Treowen Stars: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 18Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)CCB Centre for Sporting Excellence, Ystrad Mynach, Caerphilly
The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 42%, against 21% for a draw and 37% for Trethomas Bluebirds. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trethomas Bluebirds vs Treowen Stars?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Trethomas Bluebirds (1,490) and Treowen Stars (1,559).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trethomas Bluebirds have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Treowen Stars have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Trethomas Bluebirds win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Treowen Stars win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2025 | Treowen Stars 2-0 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Trethomas Bluebirds 1-1 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Treowen Stars vs Trethomas Bluebirds on Dec 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Trethomas Bluebirds score 1.5 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trethomas Bluebirds | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Treowen Stars | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Trethomas Bluebirds sit 14th in FAW Championship (2 points from 4 matches) and Treowen Stars sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
| 14 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trethomas Bluebirds vs Treowen Stars?
- The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 42%, against 21% for a draw and 37% for Trethomas Bluebirds.
- Where and when is Trethomas Bluebirds vs Treowen Stars played?
- Trethomas Bluebirds vs Treowen Stars is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at CCB Centre for Sporting Excellence, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 18, 2026llanelli AFCvsLlantwit Major
- Dec 18, 2026Pontypridd TownvsYnyshir Albions
- Dec 18, 2026Afan LidovsCarmarthen Town
- Dec 18, 2026Swansea UniversityvsCaerau (Ely)
- Dec 18, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCardiff Draconians
- Dec 18, 2026Newport CityvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Dec 19, 2026Pontardawe TownvsAberystwyth Town