Baglan Dragons vs Cardiff Draconians: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 18Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot
The Footlab AI model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cardiff Draconians wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,757 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Cardiff Draconians?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Baglan Dragons (1,486) and Cardiff Draconians (1,522).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Baglan Dragons vs Cardiff Draconians
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Cardiff Draconians
Not enough data to predict the Cardiff Draconians lineup.
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 07:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Cardiff Draconians have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Llantwit Fardre(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Radnor Valley(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Baglan Dragons wins, 1 draw, 2 Cardiff Draconians wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians 2-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians 3-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 0-0 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons on Sep 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Baglan Dragons score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff Draconians score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (17 points from 11 matches) and Cardiff Draconians sit 15th (9 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| 15 | Cardiff Draconians | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
A question about Baglan Dragons vs Cardiff Draconians?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Cardiff Draconians?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Cardiff Draconians played?
- Baglan Dragons vs Cardiff Draconians is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Dec 18, 2026Pontypridd TownvsYnyshir Albions
- Dec 18, 2026Afan LidovsCarmarthen Town
- Dec 18, 2026Swansea UniversityvsCaerau (Ely)
- Dec 18, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsTreowen Stars
- Dec 18, 2026Newport CityvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Dec 19, 2026Pontardawe TownvsAberystwyth Town