Pontardawe Town vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 18Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Parc Ynysderw, Swansea
The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Pontardawe Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontardawe Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
Aberystwyth Town starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,577 vs 1,467).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontardawe Town have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 0-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Cwmbran Celtic(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Pontardawe Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Aberystwyth Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2023 | Aberystwyth Town 2-1 Pontardawe Town | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Pontardawe Town on Oct 14, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Pontardawe Town score 1.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aberystwyth Town score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontardawe Town | 1.3 | 2.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontardawe Town sit 13th in FAW Championship (3 points from 4 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontardawe Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Pontardawe Town.
- Where and when is Pontardawe Town vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Pontardawe Town vs Aberystwyth Town is played on December 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Parc Ynysderw, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 18, 2026llanelli AFCvsLlantwit Major
- Dec 18, 2026Pontypridd TownvsYnyshir Albions
- Dec 18, 2026Afan LidovsCarmarthen Town
- Dec 18, 2026Swansea UniversityvsCaerau (Ely)
- Dec 18, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsTreowen Stars
- Dec 18, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCardiff Draconians
- Dec 18, 2026Newport CityvsCaerphilly Athletic