Where and when is Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely) is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Sketty Lane, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 18Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Sketty Lane, Swansea

Swansea University

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 51%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Caerau (Ely). The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely)?

A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Swansea University (1,579) and Caerau (Ely) (1,656).

Swansea University win51 %

Draw21 %

Caerau (Ely) win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea University have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Swansea University
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Caerau (Ely)(away)	5-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	llanelli AFC(home)	3-0	FAW Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Baglan Dragons(away)	3-0	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Llantwit Major(away)	3-0	FAW Championship
Oct 18, 2025	Trefelin(home)	1-6	Welsh Cup

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Swansea University win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Caerau (Ely) 1-5 Swansea University	FAW Championship
Sep 28, 2019	Caerau (Ely) 1-4 Swansea University	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Swansea University on Aug 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Swansea University score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Swansea University	1.9	1.6	6	6/15	11/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Swansea University sit 1st in FAW Championship (12 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea University	4	4	0	0	14	1	12
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 51%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Caerau (Ely).
Where and when is Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely) is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Sketty Lane, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.