Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 18Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Sketty Lane, Swansea
The Footlab AI model makes Swansea University the favourite at 47%, against 21% for a draw and 32% for Caerau (Ely). The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,746 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely)?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Swansea University (1,586) and Caerau (Ely) (1,654).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely)
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Swansea University
4-3-3- AA. Orme
- TT. Hicks
- JJ. Roberts
- WW. Hudson
- CC. Langan
- WW. Toms
- DD. Sheehan
- DD. Thomas
- HH. Huddart
- DDaniel Barnard
- LL. Martin
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 02:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea University have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 5-5 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 4-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 16, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 6-0 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Swansea University wins, 0 draws, 0 Caerau (Ely) wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 1-5 Swansea University | FAW Championship |
| Sep 28, 2019 | Caerau (Ely) 1-4 Swansea University | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Swansea University on Aug 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Swansea University score 2.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea University | 2.7 | 1.5 | 7 | 7/15 | 12/15 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.2 | 1.9 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swansea University sit 1st in FAW Championship (21 points from 9 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 19 |
A question about Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely)?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab AI model makes Swansea University the favourite at 47%, against 21% for a draw and 32% for Caerau (Ely).
- Where and when is Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely) is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Sketty Lane, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 18, 2026llanelli AFCvsLlantwit Major
- Dec 18, 2026Pontypridd TownvsYnyshir Albions
- Dec 18, 2026Afan LidovsCarmarthen Town
- Dec 18, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsTreowen Stars
- Dec 18, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCardiff Draconians
- Dec 18, 2026Newport CityvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Dec 19, 2026Pontardawe TownvsAberystwyth Town