AFC Leopards vs Police: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for AFC Leopards. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Leopards vs Police?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate AFC Leopards (1,589) and Police (1,602).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Leopards have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; Police have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Bidco United(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Mara Sugar(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Nairobi United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 0-0 | Shield Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 AFC Leopards win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Police win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | AFC Leopards 0-3 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Police 0-0 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Police 0-0 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | AFC Leopards 1-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2024 | Police 1-0 AFC Leopards | Shield Cup |
| May 15, 2024 | AFC Leopards 1-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: AFC Leopards vs Police on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Leopards score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Police score 0.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Leopards | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Police | 0.9 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Leopards sit 2nd in FKF Premier League (64 points from 34 matches) and Police sit 3rd (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AFC Leopards | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 28 | 64 |
| 3 | Police | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 31 | 21 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Leopards vs Police?
- The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for AFC Leopards.
- Where and when is AFC Leopards vs Police played?
- AFC Leopards vs Police is played on January 16, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.