AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Milton Keynes Dons the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for AFC Wimbledon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?
Milton Keynes Dons starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,831 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Wimbledon have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Milton Keynes Dons have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | QPR(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Huddersfield(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oxford United(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Barnet(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AFC Wimbledon win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Milton Keynes Dons win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Milton Keynes Dons 0-2 AFC Wimbledon | FA Cup |
| Sep 14, 2024 | AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Milton Keynes Dons | League Two |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons | League Two |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
| Apr 9, 2022 | AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons | League One |
Last archived meeting: Milton Keynes Dons vs AFC Wimbledon on Jan 25, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Milton Keynes Dons score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Wimbledon sit 23rd in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Milton Keynes Dons sit 14th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?
- The Footlab model makes Milton Keynes Dons the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for AFC Wimbledon.
- Where and when is AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons played?
- AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons is played on September 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.