Alcains vs Sertanense: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Trigueiros do Aragão, Alcains
The Footlab model makes Sertanense the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Alcains. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcains vs Sertanense?
Sertanense starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,715 vs 1,603).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alcains have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Sertanense have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2025 | FC Alverca II(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sertanense(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 29, 2025 | União de Coimbra(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Marinhense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Peniche(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Alcains(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Os Marialvas(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alcains win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Sertanense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sertanense 3-1 Alcains | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Alcains 2-0 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Sertanense 1-3 Alcains | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Alcains 0-3 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Alcains 0-1 Sertanense | Taça de Portugal |
| Feb 28, 2021 | Alcains 0-2 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E |
How many goals should we expect?
Alcains score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sertanense score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcains | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Sertanense | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcains vs Sertanense?
- The Footlab model makes Sertanense the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Alcains.
- Where and when is Alcains vs Sertanense played?
- Alcains vs Sertanense is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Trigueiros do Aragão, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.