Alcochetense vs Fayal: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio António Almeida Correia, Alcochete
The Footlab model makes Alcochetense the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Fayal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcochetense vs Fayal?
Alcochetense starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,847 vs 1,738).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alcochetense have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Fayal have 0, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Portel(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Juventude Évora(away) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Lagoa(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Oriental Lisboa(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2025 | CD Olivais e Moscavide(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 27, 2020 | Oriental Dragon(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Coutada(away) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Alcochetense score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fayal score 0.0 and concede 3.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcochetense | 1.4 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Fayal | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0 | 0/3 | 2/3 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcochetense vs Fayal?
- The Footlab model makes Alcochetense the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Fayal.
- Where and when is Alcochetense vs Fayal played?
- Alcochetense vs Fayal is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio António Almeida Correia, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.