Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Atletico Grau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Deportivo Garcilaso (1,711) and Atletico Grau (1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Garcilaso have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Atletico Grau have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sport Boys(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Deportivo Garcilaso win(s), 5 draw(s), 0 Atletico Grau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Atletico Grau 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Atletico Grau 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Atletico Grau 2-2 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| May 12, 2024 | Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Atletico Grau 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Grau vs Deportivo Garcilaso on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Grau score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Atletico Grau | 1.2 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportivo Garcilaso sit 7th in Primera División (26 points from 17 matches) and Atletico Grau sit 16th (16 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 39 |
| 7 | Atletico Grau | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 23 | 26 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Atletico Grau.
- Where and when is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau played?
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 5, 2026UniversitariovsComerciantes Unidos
- Sep 5, 2026Sporting CristalvsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 5, 2026FBC MelgarvsADT
- Sep 5, 2026Sport HuancayovsSport Boys
- Sep 5, 2026Alianza AtleticovsUTC Cajamarca
- Sep 5, 2026CuscovsUCV Moquegua
- Sep 5, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsAlianza Lima
- Sep 5, 2026FC CajamarcavsCienciano