Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Indodrill Stadium, Alloa
The Footlab model makes Alloa Athletic the favourite at 73%, against 15% for a draw and 12% for Gala Fairydean Rovers. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers?
Alloa Athletic starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (1,665 vs 1,455).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alloa Athletic have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Gala Fairydean Rovers have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen of the South(away) | 2-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Montrose(home) | 3-0 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stranraer(home) | 2-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamilton Academical(away) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | East Fife(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn(home) | 3-4 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Rangers U21(home) | 0-4 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Linlithgow Rose(away) | 0-5 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bo'ness United(home) | 1-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Broxburn Athletic(away) | 0-1 | Football League - Lowland League |
How many goals should we expect?
Alloa Athletic score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gala Fairydean Rovers score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa Athletic | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Gala Fairydean Rovers | 1.9 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Alloa Athletic the favourite at 73%, against 15% for a draw and 12% for Gala Fairydean Rovers.
- Where and when is Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers played?
- Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Indodrill Stadium, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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