Almagro vs Nueva Chicago: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tres de Febrero, Tres de Febrero, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Almagro the favourite at 50%, against 31% for a draw and 19% for Nueva Chicago. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Almagro (1,704) and Nueva Chicago (1,716).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almagro have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Nueva Chicago have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colegiales(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Moron(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Quilmes(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro(home) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Midland(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlanta(home) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 17, 2026 | All Boys(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman(home) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Atletico DE Rafaela(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Almagro win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Nueva Chicago win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Nueva Chicago 1-2 Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Almagro 1-2 Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Nueva Chicago 1-0 Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 14, 2023 | Nueva Chicago 2-0 Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Almagro 0-0 Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 12, 2022 | Nueva Chicago 2-3 Almagro | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Nueva Chicago vs Almagro on May 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Almagro score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Nueva Chicago score 0.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almagro | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Nueva Chicago | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Almagro sit 13th in Primera Nacional (31 points from 26 matches) and Nueva Chicago sit 14th (29 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Almagro | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 29 | 31 |
| 14 | Nueva Chicago | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 24 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
- The Footlab model makes Almagro the favourite at 50%, against 31% for a draw and 19% for Nueva Chicago.
- Where and when is Almagro vs Nueva Chicago played?
- Almagro vs Nueva Chicago is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tres de Febrero, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026All BoysvsColon Santa Fe
- Sep 19, 2026Atletico MitrevsSan Telmo
- Sep 19, 2026Gimnasia JujuyvsSan Martin Tucuman
- Sep 19, 2026QuilmesvsClub Atlético Güemes
- Sep 19, 2026Los AndesvsDeportivo Moron
- Sep 19, 2026Defensores De BelgranovsFerro Carril Oeste
- Sep 19, 2026Gimnasia Y TirovsAtletico DE Rafaela
- Sep 19, 2026PatronatovsSan Martin S.J.