Defensores De Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Pasquale, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Ferro Carril Oeste the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Defensores De Belgrano. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Defensores De Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
Ferro Carril Oeste starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,815 vs 1,708).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Defensores De Belgrano have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Ferro Carril Oeste have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Almirante Brown(home) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico DE Rafaela(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Mitre(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CA Estudiantes(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | All Boys(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | All Boys(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlanta(home) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Andes(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Godoy Cruz(home) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Deportivo Moron(away) | 0-4 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Defensores De Belgrano win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ferro Carril Oeste win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Ferro Carril Oeste 2-1 Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 26, 2022 | Defensores De Belgrano 2-2 Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Defensores De Belgrano 0-2 Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 4, 2021 | Ferro Carril Oeste 1-1 Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
| Dec 7, 2018 | Defensores De Belgrano 2-0 Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Defensores De Belgrano on May 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Defensores De Belgrano score 0.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ferro Carril Oeste score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensores De Belgrano | 0.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Defensores De Belgrano sit 15th in Primera Nacional (26 points from 25 matches) and Ferro Carril Oeste sit 1st (52 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 23 | 52 |
| 15 | Defensores De Belgrano | 25 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 23 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Defensores De Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
- The Footlab model makes Ferro Carril Oeste the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Defensores De Belgrano.
- Where and when is Defensores De Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste played?
- Defensores De Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Pasquale, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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