Patronato vs San Martin S.J.: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella, Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos
The Footlab model makes Patronato the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for San Martin S.J.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Patronato (1,709) and San Martin S.J. (1,789).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Patronato have 2 wins, 9 draws and 4 defeats; San Martin S.J. have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia Jujuy(home) | 3-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colon Santa Fe(away) | 0-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Colegiales(away) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Quilmes(home) | 3-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Midland(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro(home) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Cordoba(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico DE Rafaela(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Agropecuario(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Patronato win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 San Martin S.J. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | San Martin S.J. 1-1 Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Patronato 0-3 San Martin S.J. | Primera Nacional |
| Jun 2, 2024 | San Martin S.J. 1-0 Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| Jun 24, 2023 | San Martin S.J. 2-1 Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| Feb 17, 2023 | Patronato 1-2 San Martin S.J. | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 19, 2018 | San Martin S.J. 1-0 Patronato | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: San Martin S.J. vs Patronato on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Patronato score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; San Martin S.J. score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patronato | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| San Martin S.J. | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Patronato sit 17th in Primera Nacional (25 points from 25 matches) and San Martin S.J. sit 11th (32 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Martin S.J. | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
| 17 | Patronato | 25 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?
- The Footlab model makes Patronato the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for San Martin S.J..
- Where and when is Patronato vs San Martin S.J. played?
- Patronato vs San Martin S.J. is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Atletico MitrevsSan Telmo
- Sep 19, 2026Gimnasia JujuyvsSan Martin Tucuman
- Sep 19, 2026QuilmesvsClub Atlético Güemes
- Sep 19, 2026AlmagrovsNueva Chicago
- Sep 19, 2026Los AndesvsDeportivo Moron
- Sep 19, 2026Defensores De BelgranovsFerro Carril Oeste
- Sep 19, 2026Gimnasia Y TirovsAtletico DE Rafaela
- Sep 19, 2026All BoysvsColon Santa Fe