Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Gigante del Norte, Salta, Provincia de Salta
The Footlab model makes Gimnasia Y Tiro the favourite at 49%, against 33% for a draw and 18% for Atletico DE Rafaela. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Gimnasia Y Tiro (1,798) and Atletico DE Rafaela (1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gimnasia Y Tiro have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Atletico DE Rafaela have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(away) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Central Norte(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Almagro(away) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Temperley(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Temperley(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Gimnasia Y Tiro win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Atletico DE Rafaela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Atletico DE Rafaela 1-0 Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Atletico DE Rafaela 0-0 Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Gimnasia Y Tiro 1-0 Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Atletico DE Rafaela vs Gimnasia Y Tiro on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gimnasia Y Tiro score 1.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico DE Rafaela score 0.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 0.5 | 0.9 | 8 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gimnasia Y Tiro sit 6th in Primera Nacional (38 points from 26 matches) and Atletico DE Rafaela sit 8th (35 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 25 | 38 |
| 8 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
- The Footlab model makes Gimnasia Y Tiro the favourite at 49%, against 33% for a draw and 18% for Atletico DE Rafaela.
- Where and when is Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela played?
- Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Gigante del Norte, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026All BoysvsColon Santa Fe
- Sep 19, 2026Atletico MitrevsSan Telmo
- Sep 19, 2026Gimnasia JujuyvsSan Martin Tucuman
- Sep 19, 2026QuilmesvsClub Atlético Güemes
- Sep 19, 2026AlmagrovsNueva Chicago
- Sep 19, 2026Los AndesvsDeportivo Moron
- Sep 19, 2026Defensores De BelgranovsFerro Carril Oeste
- Sep 19, 2026PatronatovsSan Martin S.J.