Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento, La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Almirante Brown the favourite at 43%, against 32% for a draw and 25% for Ferro Carril Oeste. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Almirante Brown (1,768) and Ferro Carril Oeste (1,815).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almirante Brown have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Ferro Carril Oeste have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(away) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tristan Suarez(away) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ciudad de Bolívar(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Racing Cordoba(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Atletico Mitre(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | All Boys(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlanta(home) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Andes(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Godoy Cruz(home) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Deportivo Moron(away) | 0-4 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Almirante Brown win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Ferro Carril Oeste win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | Ferro Carril Oeste 0-1 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Almirante Brown 0-0 Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Ferro Carril Oeste 1-1 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2022 | Ferro Carril Oeste 1-0 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 5, 2014 | Almirante Brown 1-1 Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
| Oct 5, 2013 | Ferro Carril Oeste 0-1 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown on Apr 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Almirante Brown score 0.9 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ferro Carril Oeste score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almirante Brown | 0.9 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Almirante Brown sit 4th in Primera Nacional (41 points from 26 matches) and Ferro Carril Oeste sit 1st (52 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 23 | 52 |
| 4 | Almirante Brown | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 16 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
- The Footlab model makes Almirante Brown the favourite at 43%, against 32% for a draw and 25% for Ferro Carril Oeste.
- Where and when is Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste played?
- Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.