Angola vs Malawi: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA, Benguela
The Footlab model makes Angola the favourite at 54%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Malawi. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Angola vs Malawi?
Angola starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,578 vs 1,446).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Angola have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Malawi have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Central African Republic(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mauritania(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Egypt(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Zimbabwe(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 22, 2025 | South Africa(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Botswana(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zambia U23(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Lesotho(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Angola win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Malawi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2025 | Malawi 0-1 Angola | COSAFA Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Angola score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Malawi score 0.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Malawi | 0.5 | 0.8 | 5 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Angola sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (14 points from 6 matches) and Malawi sit 3rd (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angola | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Malawi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Angola vs Malawi?
- The Footlab model makes Angola the favourite at 54%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Malawi.
- Where and when is Angola vs Malawi played?
- Angola vs Malawi is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.