Egypt vs Malawi: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Suez Canal Stadium, Ismailia
The Footlab model makes Egypt the favourite at 55%, against 28% for a draw and 16% for Malawi. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Egypt vs Malawi?
Egypt starts as the favourite with a 277-point Elo edge (1,723 vs 1,446).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Egypt have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Malawi have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Iran(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | New Zealand(away) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Brazil(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| May 28, 2026 | Russia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Botswana(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zambia U23(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Lesotho(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Egypt win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Malawi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | Malawi 0-4 Egypt | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 24, 2023 | Egypt 2-0 Malawi | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Egypt score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Malawi score 0.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Malawi | 0.5 | 0.8 | 5 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Egypt sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (14 points from 6 matches) and Malawi sit 3rd (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Malawi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Egypt vs Malawi?
- The Footlab model makes Egypt the favourite at 55%, against 28% for a draw and 16% for Malawi.
- Where and when is Egypt vs Malawi played?
- Egypt vs Malawi is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Suez Canal Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.