Arandina vs Palencia CF: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Montecillo, Aranda de Duero
The Footlab AI model makes Palencia CF the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Arandina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Palencia CF wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,047 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arandina vs Palencia CF?
Palencia CF starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,740).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arandina vs Palencia CF
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arandina
Not enough data to predict the Arandina lineup.
Palencia CF
Not enough data to predict the Palencia CF lineup.
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 07:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arandina have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Palencia CF have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bembibre(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cristo Atlético(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Turégano(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Calasanz de Soria(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Salamanca II(away) | 4-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Calasanz de Soria(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Salamanca II(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Almazán(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | UD Santa Marta(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Burgos Promesas(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arandina wins, 1 draw, 2 Palencia CF wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Arandina 0-1 Palencia CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Palencia CF 4-0 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 11, 2025 | Palencia CF 1-2 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Arandina 3-2 Palencia CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Arandina 1-1 Palencia CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Palencia CF 1-2 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Arandina vs Palencia CF on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arandina score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Palencia CF score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arandina | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
| Palencia CF | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arandina sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (9 points from 7 matches) and Palencia CF sit 6th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
A question about Arandina vs Palencia CF?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arandina vs Palencia CF?
- The Footlab AI model makes Palencia CF the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Arandina.
- Where and when is Arandina vs Palencia CF played?
- Arandina vs Palencia CF is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 13, 2026GuijuelovsUD Santa Marta
- Dec 13, 2026BembibrevsSalamanca II
- Dec 13, 2026Cristo AtléticovsCalasanz de Soria
- Dec 13, 2026La Virgen del CaminovsBurgos Promesas
- Dec 13, 2026Mirandés IIvsTurégano
- Dec 13, 2026Atlético MansillésvsAlmazán
- Dec 13, 2026VillaralbovsColegios Diocesanos
- Dec 13, 2026Unionistas IIvsCultural Leonesa II