Ards vs Moyola Park: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Bangor Fuels Arena, Bangor
The Footlab AI model makes Ards the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Moyola Park. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ards wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ards vs Moyola Park?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Ards (1,395) and Moyola Park (1,327).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ards vs Moyola Park
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ards
Not enough data to predict the Ards lineup.
Moyola Park
4-3-3- 54K. Ximenes
- 9J. McCready
- 65L. Harkin
- 23J. Wallace
- AA. Gray
- CC. Houston
- RR. McLean
- BB. Deane
- NN. Fielding
- RR. McLean
- AA. Findlay
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ards have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Moyola Park have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newington Youth(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Moyola Park(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rathfriland(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Loughgall(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Glenavon FC(home) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Queen's University(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ards(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(away) | 2-6 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Ards win, 1 draw, 0 Moyola Park wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Moyola Park 0-0 Ards | Championship |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Moyola Park 1-3 Ards | Irish Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Ards score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Moyola Park score 1.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ards | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Moyola Park | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ards sit 8th in Championship (52 points from 38 matches) and Moyola Park sit 13th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ArdsChampionship 1: Relegation Group | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 56 | 51 | 52 |
| 13 | Moyola ParkChampionship 1 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
A question about Ards vs Moyola Park?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ards vs Moyola Park?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ards the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Moyola Park.
- Where and when is Ards vs Moyola Park played?
- Ards vs Moyola Park is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Bangor Fuels Arena, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.