Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki played?

Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is played on May 15, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Gdynia

Arka Gdynia

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?

A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Arka Gdynia (1,900) and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1,835).

Arka Gdynia win48 %

Draw25 %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arka Gdynia have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arka Gdynia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 17, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	3-0	I Liga
Aug 10, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	4-0	I Liga
Jul 24, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-0	I Liga

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Polonia Bytom(away)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 14, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 2, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	1-0	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

How many goals should we expect?

Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arka Gdynia	1.2	1.5	6	4/15	7/15
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	1.1	1.2	6	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arka Gdynia sit 5th in I Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	5	3	2	0	8	3	11
5	Arka Gdynia	5	3	0	2	8	4	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?: The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki played?: Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is played on May 15, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.