Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom played?

Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom is played on August 30, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Gdynia

Arka Gdynia

Polonia Bytom

The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Polonia Bytom. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom?

A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Arka Gdynia (1,910) and Polonia Bytom (1,837).

Arka Gdynia win50 %

Draw24 %

Polonia Bytom win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arka Gdynia have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Polonia Bytom have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arka Gdynia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 17, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	3-0	I Liga
Aug 10, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	4-0	I Liga
Jul 24, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-0	I Liga

Polonia Bytom
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(home)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 16, 2026	Stal Mielec(away)	2-5	I Liga
Aug 7, 2026	Pogoń Siedlce(home)	2-2	I Liga
Jul 31, 2026	ŁKS Łódź(away)	1-2	I Liga
Jul 24, 2026	Warta Poznań(home)	4-3	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Arka Gdynia win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Polonia Bytom win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 8, 2023	Polonia Bytom 1-3 Arka Gdynia	Cup

Last archived meeting: Polonia Bytom vs Arka Gdynia on Nov 8, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Bytom score 2.1 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arka Gdynia	1.2	1.5	6	4/15	7/15
Polonia Bytom	2.1	2.3	2	13/15	13/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arka Gdynia sit 5th in I Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Bytom sit 14th (5 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Arka Gdynia	5	3	0	2	8	4	9
14	Polonia Bytom	5	1	2	2	11	14	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom?: The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Polonia Bytom.
Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom played?: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom is played on August 30, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.