Where and when is Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk played?

Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa

Lechia Gdansk

The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Lechia Gdansk. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?

A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Polonia Warszawa (1,882) and Lechia Gdansk (1,846).

Polonia Warszawa win45 %

Draw25 %

Lechia Gdansk win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polonia Warszawa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Lechia Gdansk have 3, 2 and 10.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Polonia Warszawa
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Nieciecza(away)	3-1	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Pogoń Siedlce(away)	0-1	I Liga
Aug 7, 2026	Ruch Chorzów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(home)	3-1	I Liga
Jul 26, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(away)	1-0	I Liga

Lechia Gdansk
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Pogoń Siedlce(home)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 14, 2026	Ruch Chorzów(away)	0-1	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Podbeskidzie(away)	2-2	I Liga
Jul 31, 2026	Warta Poznań(home)	0-3	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(home)	0-3	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Polonia Warszawa win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Lechia Gdansk win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 24, 2024	Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Polonia Warszawa	I Liga
Oct 31, 2023	Polonia Warszawa 0-1 Lechia Gdansk	I Liga

Last archived meeting: Lechia Gdansk vs Polonia Warszawa on Apr 24, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Polonia Warszawa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lechia Gdansk score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Polonia Warszawa	1.5	1.7	1	10/15	10/15
Lechia Gdansk	1.1	2.1	1	9/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Polonia Warszawa sit 4th in I Liga (10 points from 5 matches) and Lechia Gdansk sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Polonia Warszawa	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
16	Lechia Gdansk	5	1	1	3	3	9	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?: The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Lechia Gdansk.
Where and when is Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk played?: Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.