Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Gdynia
The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Polonia Warszawa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Arka Gdynia (1,900) and Polonia Warszawa (1,886).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arka Gdynia have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Polonia Warszawa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 3-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 4-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Odra Opole(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Arka Gdynia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Polonia Warszawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2025 | Arka Gdynia 0-0 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Polonia Warszawa 0-3 Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Polonia Warszawa 0-3 Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2023 | Arka Gdynia 2-3 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
Last archived meeting: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa on Feb 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Warszawa score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Polonia Warszawa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arka Gdynia sit 5th in I Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Warszawa sit 4th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa?
- The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Polonia Warszawa.
- Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa played?
- Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Chrobry GłogówvsPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- Oct 10, 2026Odra OpolevsMiedz Legnica
- Oct 10, 2026PodbeskidzievsPogoń Siedlce
- Oct 10, 2026Puszcza NiepołomicevsPolonia Bytom
- Oct 10, 2026Stal MielecvsWarta Poznań
- Oct 10, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsRuch Chorzów
- Oct 10, 2026Stal RzeszówvsLechia Gdansk
- Oct 10, 2026Unia SkierniewicevsNieciecza