Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Mielec
The Footlab model makes Warta Poznań the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Stal Mielec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Stal Mielec (1,819) and Warta Poznań (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stal Mielec have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Warta Poznań have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź(away) | 0-4 | I Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(home) | 5-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(home) | 3-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 2-1 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Chrobry Głogów(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Odra Opole(away) | 1-3 | I Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 2-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Resovia Rzeszów(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lechia Gdansk(away) | 3-0 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stal Mielec win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Warta Poznań win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2024 | Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 23, 2023 | Stal Mielec 0-1 Warta Poznań | Ekstraklasa |
| May 27, 2023 | Stal Mielec 1-0 Warta Poznań | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 11, 2022 | Warta Poznań 1-1 Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 16, 2022 | Stal Mielec 0-1 Warta Poznań | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 24, 2021 | Warta Poznań 0-0 Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec on Apr 22, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Warta Poznań score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Warta Poznań | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stal Mielec sit 7th in I Liga (8 points from 5 matches) and Warta Poznań sit 6th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 7 | Stal Mielec | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
- The Footlab model makes Warta Poznań the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Stal Mielec.
- Where and when is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań played?
- Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Arka GdyniavsPolonia Warszawa
- Oct 10, 2026Chrobry GłogówvsPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- Oct 10, 2026Odra OpolevsMiedz Legnica
- Oct 10, 2026PodbeskidzievsPogoń Siedlce
- Oct 10, 2026Puszcza NiepołomicevsPolonia Bytom
- Oct 10, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsRuch Chorzów
- Oct 10, 2026Stal RzeszówvsLechia Gdansk
- Oct 10, 2026Unia SkierniewicevsNieciecza