Where and when is Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia played?

Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Mielec

Stal Mielec

Arka Gdynia

The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Stal Mielec. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia?

A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Stal Mielec (1,821) and Arka Gdynia (1,900).

Stal Mielec win35 %

Draw26 %

Arka Gdynia win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stal Mielec have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Arka Gdynia have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Stal Mielec
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	ŁKS Łódź(away)	0-4	I Liga
Aug 16, 2026	Polonia Bytom(home)	5-2	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 2, 2026	Podbeskidzie(home)	3-3	I Liga
Jul 26, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	2-1	I Liga

Arka Gdynia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 17, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	3-0	I Liga
Aug 10, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	4-0	I Liga
Jul 24, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-0	I Liga

How many goals should we expect?

Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Stal Mielec	2.1	1.9	0	13/15	12/15
Arka Gdynia	1.2	1.5	6	4/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Stal Mielec sit 7th in I Liga (8 points from 5 matches) and Arka Gdynia sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Arka Gdynia	5	3	0	2	8	4	9
7	Stal Mielec	5	2	2	1	11	11	8

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia?: The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Stal Mielec.
Where and when is Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia played?: Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.