Match

Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Mielec

Stal MielecArka Gdynia

The Footlab AI model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Arka Gdynia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Stal Mielec wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 5,241 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia?

A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Stal Mielec (1,744) and Arka Gdynia (1,814).

43%26%31%
Stal Mielec winDrawArka Gdynia win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Stal Mielec

4-4-1-1
  1. 78K. Cybulski
  1. 32F. Gerbowski
  2. 7M. Cebula
  3. 18P. Wlazło
  4. 19T. Gmur
  5. 23K. Getinger
  1. 44Israel Puerto
  2. 14K. Kościelny
  3. 94B. Kwiecień
  4. 5H. Matynia
  1. 99M. Gostomski

Arka Gdynia

4-3-3
  1. 9V. Gutkovskis
  2. 17N. Dzięgielewski
  3. 71J. Kowalski
  1. 28M. Ambrosiewicz
  2. 16Kuba Solecki
  3. 11D. Kocyła
  1. 94D. Gojny
  2. 4M. Komenda
  3. 6K. Lipkowski
  4. 44J. Dominguez
  1. 33J. Grobelny

Computed on November 10, 2026 at 03:24 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stal Mielec have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Arka Gdynia have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Stal Mielec
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Ruch Chorzów(home)2-0I Liga
Oct 30, 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(away)1-0I Liga
Oct 24, 2026Chrobry Głogów(home)0-0I Liga
Oct 17, 2026Miedz Legnica(away)0-3I Liga
Oct 11, 2026Warta Poznań(home)2-1I Liga
Arka Gdynia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Podbeskidzie(home)3-1I Liga
Nov 3, 2026Chrobry Głogów(away)0-0I Liga
Oct 29, 2026Stal Rzeszów(home)1-2Cup
Oct 24, 2026Nieciecza(home)3-1I Liga
Oct 18, 2026Lechia Gdansk(away)1-2I Liga

How many goals should we expect?

Stal Mielec score 1.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Arka Gdynia score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Stal Mielec1.52.039/159/15
Arka Gdynia1.51.439/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Stal Mielec sit 11th in I Liga (19 points from 14 matches) and Arka Gdynia sit 12th (18 points from 14 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
11Stal Mielec14545192719
12Arka Gdynia14536191718

A question about Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia?

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia?
The Footlab AI model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Arka Gdynia.
Where and when is Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia played?
Stal Mielec vs Arka Gdynia is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Stal Mielec and Arka Gdynia

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