AS Roma vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico, Roma
The Footlab model makes AS Roma the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Fiorentina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
AS Roma starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (2,223 vs 2,120).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AS Roma have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Fiorentina have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cannes(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | QPR(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AS Roma win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Fiorentina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Fiorentina 1-2 AS Roma | Serie A |
| May 4, 2025 | AS Roma 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Fiorentina 5-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-2 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Dec 10, 2023 | AS Roma 1-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
AS Roma score 2.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 2.2 | 1.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Fiorentina | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AS Roma sit 3rd in Serie A (73 points from 38 matches) and Fiorentina sit 15th (42 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AS Roma | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 59 | 31 | 73 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 50 | 42 |
Who is out?
3 reported absence(s) for this match.
- L. PellegriniAS RomaOut(Thigh Injury)
- F. ParisiFiorentinaOut(Knee Injury)
- R. SottilFiorentinaOut(Back Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab model makes AS Roma the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Fiorentina.
- Where and when is AS Roma vs Fiorentina played?
- AS Roma vs Fiorentina is played on August 24, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.