Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Footlab model makes Atlanta United FC the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Charlotte. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte?
Charlotte starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,846 vs 1,731).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlanta United FC have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Charlotte have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 1-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Toronto FC(away) | 3-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Columbus Crew(home) | 3-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CF Pachuca(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atlanta United FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Charlotte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Charlotte 2-2 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Charlotte 0-2 Atlanta United FC | US Open Cup |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Atlanta United FC 2-3 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Charlotte 2-0 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Charlotte 0-1 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Atlanta United FC 2-3 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC on Jul 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlanta United FC score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Charlotte score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Charlotte | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlanta United FC sit 15th in Major League Soccer (18 points from 20 matches) and Charlotte sit 6th (29 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Charlotte | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 31 | 29 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte?
- The Footlab model makes Atlanta United FC the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Charlotte.
- Where and when is Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte played?
- Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte is played on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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